Elevated mortgage-interest rates, ongoing increases in prices and a lack of inventory represent a trifecta of challenges for those looking to purchase a home across Northern Virginia.
And according to new data, one or more of those headwinds is, if not holding back prospective purchasers entirely, at least putting roadblocks in their way.
Fewer than one in 10 real-estate professionals responding to the latest monthly “flash survey” online poll conducted by the Virginia Realtors trade organization say clients are essentially unaffected by higher prices and interest rates and the lack of options in their community.
As for specifics, the largest number of respondents said it was the lack of inventory, or a mix of all three issues, that was causing the biggest challenge. Smaller percentages of respondents said it was specifically either rising prices or higher interest rates.
The monthly survey, conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 5, received 497 responses from Virginia Realtors members, including 363 from those who had participated in a transaction within the previous month.
Among other findings:
• The survey’s “Buyer Activity Index” in August was 35 on a 0-to-100 scale, down from 39 a month before and marking four months of seasonal declines. (The peak for the index was 85 in the spring of 2022.)
• Only about 14 percent of respondents said buyer activity in their localities was “high” or “very high,” with 44 percent saying it was “low” or “very low.”
• The survey’s “Seller Activity Index” stood at 28 on the same 0-to-100 scale, up a tick from 27 a month before. The index has been rising, modestly but consistently, since the start of 2024, although in August just 4 percent of respondents said seller activity in their markets was high/very high and 47 percent opined it was low/very low.
• Homes that found a buyer in August received an average 2.2 offers, in line with recent months if slightly below the peak spring sales period.
• Asked where the homes market would be in three months’ time, respondents expected more buyers (47 on the 0-to-100 scale) and sellers (40) to be testing the waters during the generally cooler late-fall-early-winter months.
• Respondents were split three ways on where prices would be in three months, with 33 percent expecting them to be higher, 29 percent lower and 34 percent relatively unchanged.
Though not a scientific survey, the state Realtors organization believes the sample size is large enough to draw inferences about market conditions. For the full survey, see the Website at https://virginiarealtors.org/research/reports/flash-survey-results/.
