In the early months of the pandemic back in 2020, when regional leaders took a lockdowns-today-lockdowns-tomorrow-lockdowns-forever approach to addressing health conditions, the editorial page of a now-deceased media outlet (RIP, big fella) opined that, whatever happened in the very short term, it was going to be necessary to get those locked-down employees back in the office sooner rather than later.
If not, the editorial warned, both the commercial-real-estate sector and public-transportation network in the Washington region would find themselves in grave peril.
Last week’s GazetteLeader had some glimmers of good news – Metrobus service is now above pre-pandemic levels (although Metrorail continues to lag) and more employees are back in the office at least part of the time. But the slog back to whatever “normalcy” will look like is not done.
Owners of commercial properties have taken major hits on the value of their holdings; that has trickled down to property assessments and local tax revenue. And when you couple declining commercial valuations with the ravenous appetites of local governments, those who own homes had better brace for impact as the tax burden continues to shift in their direction. You ain’t, as the saying goes, seen nothing yet.
