One side effect of Joe Biden’s being forcibly retired by the Democratic politico-pundit-ocracy was to eliminate any slim chance Republicans might have had at snatching away the Senate seat currently held by Tim Kaine.
It was a longshot in any case, but the GOP’s only hope probably would have been an increasingly enfeebled and erratic Biden keeping Virginia in play on the presidential level, and having the impact filter down-ticket to the Senate race.
The ascension of Kamala Harris as Democratic standard-bearer may or may not revive 2024 Democratic fortunes at the presidential level. Time will tell. But it certainly has returned enthusiasm to her party’s ranks, and that alone suggests that Virginia (which Biden won by 10 percentage points in 2020) is more likely than not to remain in Democratic hands for the fifth consecutive election.
And if Democrats win the presidential battle in the Old Dominion, it’s almost a lock that Kaine will defeat the Trump-backed, seemingly gaffe-prone GOP nominee Hung Cao.
Back in January, which feels like several political generations ago, we opined here that “few voters swoon over Kaine; few can name major accomplishments he has had in office. But he’s always been likable (enough) and faced weak (enough) challengers to skate to victory after victory.” In late May, we added, “Incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine may not be loved, but always squeaks by.”
Had Biden somehow clung to the nomination only to watch his party and the electorate abandon him in droves, then Virginia might well have had a competitive U.S. Senate race this fall.
But that now seems a very remote possibility indeed.
