This year’s winter temperatures across the local region likely will be warmer than average and have higher-than-normal precipitation, thanks to a strong El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, with weakened trade winds pushing warm water toward the West Coast.
That’s according to the most recent (Nov. 16) forecast of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Weather Service. Its prognosticators say there is a “modest chance” higher than average precipitation, and a more likely chance that temperatures will be warmer than average.
At a Nov. 15 briefing by the Virginia Department of Transportation, looking at preparations for the upcoming winter season, officials gave information on “normal” winter temperatures and snow accumulations, based on averages from recordings made from 1991 through 2020 at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and Washington Dulles International Airport.
The statistics show Dulles typically had daytime temperatures 2 degrees cooler than those recorded at National, but nighttime temperatures that were about 5 degrees colder. Dulles also typically received about one-third more snow than National, which is located near the Washington metropolitan area’s central core.
In December, National Airport’s average high/low temperatures were 49/35 degrees Fahrenheit and 1.7 inches of snow; at Dulles Airport, those figures were 47/29 degrees and 2.8 inches of snow.
The average January had high/low temperatures of 45/30 degrees at National and 43/25 at Dulles, with the airports receiving 4.9 and 6.9 inches of snow, respectively. February typically featured high/low temperatures of 48/32 degrees at National and 46/27 at Dulles, with 5 and 7 inches of snow at the respective airports.
In March, typically – but not always – the last month of wintry weather, has featured average high/low temperatures of 57/39 at National and 55/34 at Dulles, with 2 and 3.9 inches of snow, respectively, at the airports.
But things appear to be getting warmer. The 2019/20 winter was among the Top 10 warmest winters, the 2020/21 winter was near normal, 2021/22 more mild and winter 2022/23 the third-warmest on record, despite bitterly cold temperatures around Christmas. One light dusting of snow kept the region from having its first recorded snowless winter, Strong said.
From 1900 to 2000, only about half of winters in the Washington region featured total snowfalls in the single digits, but since then only a quarter of winters have fallen into that category, he said. But Strong cautioned that major snow events sometimes still occur, as in the winter of 2009/10, when three major blizzards blanketed the region.
To learn the latest news on road conditions and see traffic-camera video, visit 511virginia.org. To find the location of various snowplows after 2 inches of snow has accumulated, go to vdotplows.org. For a one-stop Website with all resources in one place, go to virginiadot.org/novaemergency.