A democraphic study released by the Fairfax County government depicts a county that’s aging, diversifying racially and still growing, but more slowly.
The document, made public July 5 and focusing on data from 2023, was prepared by staff from of the Economic, Demographic and Statistical Research branch of the county’s Department of Management and Budget. And perhaps the most striking demographic changes in recent decades have been in Fairfax County’s racial composition.
The exclusively-white population dwindled from an overwhelming 69.9-percent majority in 2000 to 49.5 percent in 2020. All other groups trended upward, albeit not in equal proportions.
During in that period, the Hispanic population went from 11 percent to 17.3 and the percentage of Asian and Pacific Islander residents shot up from 13.1 percent to 20.5. The number of American Indians and Alaskan natives doubled from 0.3 percent to 0.6.
Black population gains have been minimal in Fairfax County, rising from 8.6 percent in 2000 to 9.6 percent in 2020. A population category designated “other” went from 8.2 percent to 19.8 percent in that time frame.
The average age of the county’s population has increased with each passing decade. County residents on average were 25.2 years old in 1970, 30.1 in 1980, 33.1 in 1990, 35.9 in 2000, 37.3 in 2010 and 38.3 in 2020.
According to the report, the bracket with people ages 65 and older will grow the most in coming decades. That group in 2023 constituted 15.1 percent of the county’s population and officials projected that figure would rise to 18.1 percent by 2050.
The category for ages 35 to 44 will rise from 14.5 to 15.1 percent of the county’s population and the group with people ages 45 to 54 will go up from 13.8 percent to 14.
Most of the other age categories will see slight declines during that stretch, with the one for ages 55 to 64 seeing the biggest drop, from 12.5 percent in 2023 to 10.9 percent in 2050.
The report lists population data as far back as 1970, when the county had 454,300 residents, and reports figures every five years afterward to 2015, when the population had swollen to 1,125,400.
The document switches back to yearly figures through 2023 (estimated population 1,186,000), then returns to projections for every five years starting in 2025. Officials predict the county will have 1.38 million residents by 2050.
Where those future residents will live varies widely by magisterial district. Officials expect the number of households in Braddock District to grow only from 42,568 in 2023 to 44,109 in 2050 and the number in Springfield District to rise from 45,026 to 47,625.
At the other end of the spectrum, the report projects the number of households in Hunter Mill District, which also is home to much of the heavily redeveloping Dulles Corridor and Reston, to rise from 53,978 in 2023 to 77,263 in 2050. During that same period, officials predict the number of Providence District households to increase from 53,310 to 71,599.
Fairfax County’s three towns – Vienna, Herndon and Clifton – will see vastly different changes in the number of households.
Clifton, by far the smallest of the three, will hold steady at exactly 91 households from now all the way to 2050, the report predicted. The number of households in Vienna is expected to rise from 5,762 in 2023 to 5,856 in 2050. But during that period, Herndon likely will experience far greater growth, going from 7,834 households to 11,205.
Fairfax County’s housing mix also likely will swing more toward multi-family developments in the future.
Single-family detached dwellings accounted for 45.5 percent of the county’s housing inventory in 2023, but officials expect that statistic to drop to 39.8 percent by 2050. Single-family attached units (such as rowhouses and townhouses) likely will have a similar decline, going from 24.1 percent to 20.7.
Multi-family units, however, are expected to constitute 39.5 percent of the county’s housing stock in 2050, up from 30.3 percent in 2023.
To view the demographic report, visit https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/demographics/sites/demographics/files/assets/demographicreports/fullrpt.pdf.
