Overall sales may be down, for a number of reasons, but Fairfax County single-family homes may be poised for another run of million-dollar months.
The average sales price of $1,077,212 for the 459 single-family homes that went to closing in March was down 3.8 percent from $1,119,228 a year before, but marks the first time in three months, and only the second time since last summer, that the average price crossed the seven-figure threshold.
March sales data were reported April 11 by MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS, as analyzed by the GazetteLeader.
Not that long ago – say, 2020 – the mere thought of an average $1 million home-sales price across Fairfax would have left mouths agape locally (as it still does nationally, where the average single-family home price is significantly less than half that amount). But in October 2021, the county market recorded its first million-dollar month, with eight of the subsequent nine months joining it.
The current peak of the Fairfax market was hit last March, at more than $1.1 million, as sellers grabbed anything they could in an effort to beat spiking interest rates.
That the average price dropped below $1 million starting the end of summer 2022 and for the most part has stayed there is not really a surprise, as both sales and average prices tend to trail off in autumn and winter. In December 2022, however, the market again briefly catapulted into the seven-figure club.
The spring season traditionally sees higher prices than winter, and with inventory still constrained as prospective sellers are sitting on the sidelines, buyers seem willing to open their wallets – for the right property, that is. This past month’s average sales price is the second highest recorded in Fairfax County’s single-family market.
The full rundown of average single-family sales prices for Fairfax, based on Bright MLS data as analyzed by the GazetteLeader:
• March 2023: $1,077,212.
• February 2023: $979,043.
• January 2023: $977,209.
• December 2022: $1,009,366.
• November 2022: $987,000.
• October 2022: $991,000.
• September 2022: $964,000.
• August 2022 $973,000.
• July 2022: $1,043,000.
• June 2022: $1,071,000.
• May 2022: $1,051,000.
• April 2022: $1,044,000.
• March 2022: $1,119,000.
• February 2022: $1,030,000.
• January 2022 : $1,062,000.
• December 2021: $1,001,000.
• November 2021: $937,000.
• October 2021: $1,034,000.
For the month, there were a total of 960 properties changing hands, down 31.7 percent from 1,405 a year before. The overall average sales price – counting single-family homes, townhouses and condominiums – was $776,792, a dip of 2.3 percent.
A total of 182 properties across the county changed hands from more than $1 million, including 18 for $2.5 million and up. Total sales volume for all properties that went to closing in March stood at just under $734 million, down 32 percent from $1.07 billion a year before.
The challenge for buyers continues to be a lack of inventory, as many who purchased homes during the rock-bottom-interest-rate environment have no incentive to give them up. While active listings across the Fairfax market were up at the end of 923 (932 vs. 761 a year before), that’s largely due to homes staying on the market longer. The number of new listings coming to market in March (1,212 vs. 1,958 a year before) suggests pickings will be slim for buyers who are on the hunt.
The total number of pending sales was down at the end of the month compared to a year before by about 30 percent, suggesting the springtime may be softer than usual owing to the inventory crunch, affordability issues and interest rates that, while not out of historic norms, are significantly higher than a year to 18 months ago.
Figures represent most, but not all, sales during the period. All March 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
